College basketball analytics
Know the game before the tip.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency ratings for all 365 Division I teams, injury-aware game predictions, player impact ratings and NCAA tournament odds, refreshed three times a day.
A project by Brandon Nelson.
What you get
Everything you need to read a game
Team ratings
Tempo-free offense, defense and pace adjusted for opponent, with team-specific home court, Four Factors and strength of schedule.
🎯Game predictions
Score, total and win odds for every D1 game, adjusted for listed injuries, next to the betting line.
⛹️Player impact
Box plus-minus fit to play-by-play RAPM, on/off and lineup ratings, transfer-aware rosters.
🏆Bracket odds
Thousands of simulations of the season, conference tournaments, selection and the NCAA bracket.
🆚Matchup tool
Any two teams, any site: projected score, pace, and a side-by-side comparison.
🧾Honest record
Every prediction is logged before tip and graded, with the full backtest published.
Explore the site
See it for yourself
Screenshots of the live site. Click any one to open it.
Ratings
All 365 D1 teams with AdjEM, AdjO, AdjD, tempo, SOS and Four Factors, filterable by conference.
Matchup predictor
Pick any two teams and a site. The model projects the score, win probability and pace, then compares the two teams side by side.
Conferences
Conference standings and projections, averaged over 2,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
Methodology
Built to be checked
Every Division I game since 2018-19 is reduced to possessions. A weighted ridge regression fits each team's offensive and defensive efficiency and tempo, adjusting for opponent strength and site.
We publish our accuracy, including against the spread. The model is about as accurate as closing lines and has not shown a betting edge.
Read the methodology ↗- Recent games count more, and blowouts are capped so garbage time doesn't dominate
- Preseason ratings account for returning minutes, incoming transfers, recruiting class and coaching changes
- The betting line is shown for comparison only; it is not an input
- Every prediction is logged before tip and graded
Free & Premium
Start free. Upgrade when you want the full model.
Free
- All 365 team ratings and Four Factors
- Team pages, schedules and win odds
- My Team home with your team's colors
- Matchup predictor
- Conference standings projections
- Model record and methodology
Premium
- Everything in Free
- Daily predictions for every game, with edges vs the line
- Player impact, RAPM, on/off and lineup ratings
- NCAA bracket, seed and Final Four odds
- Injury-adjusted projections
Pick your team. Know the game.
Start free on chalkboardanalytics.com, or get in touch.